My Opinion
After having spent 11 years at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), being responsible for representing NCAR and mainstream science and publishing scientists (you try to do it!!!...they correctly hold you responsible for every word you say and strongly let you know it!!!...I have even been interrupted during public presentations and had to defend definition differences based on one word right there in front of the public!!!), being exposed to and relating the mainstream climate scientific data almost daily, and personally knowing and relating to literally the top climate researchers from literally around the world on an almost daily basis as an insider,  I personally think we need to take sharp action, now, to attack climate change. This is because, the best data we have, shows that there is a long, long lag time between any action we take and for it to take effect (at least 20-30 years due to the lag of the oceans [thermal intertia]).

This will also, to the best of our information, help the United States to remain a world leader and create tens of thousands of new green jobs (much as the industrial revolution did) and a whole new energy economy...although some groups would admittedly have to be retrained such as workers in the petroleum and coal industries. Germany has declared that by 2010, it will have more jobs in the green energy sector then in the automobile producing business. So can we.

How serious is this climate change problem in my opinion? In my opinion from a long-time insider's point of view, at the risk of sounding alarmist, it is one of the most serious problems facing humanity because of the long, long  lag time involved and the artificially fast speed at which it is happening (easily ten times faster than under normal circumstances) and will continue to happen. Animals, plants and human society cannot cope with this speed. I have literally had nightmares about climate change and what I was doing when it fully happened to our country. In my opinion, this is a clear and present danger that requires immediate action.

In my opinion and experience, the public has utterly no idea how serious climate change is. It has been lumped into just
another "problem."  However, unfortunately, there is a difference. It is that mainstream science has proved it and that it will continue. Many things are not known about climate change...but many more are. Mainstream science has the evidence since 1824 (Fourier) that human-caused climate change is now happening and we know for certain that it will continue and in general what will happen unless we slow it down.

So what is the legitimate mainstream scientific debate about human-caused (anthropogenic) climate change or is there any? Yes, there is some. The mainstream scientific debate now is how fast it will happen, what it will affect and the actions to take...not in any way whatsoever, in the slightest way, any hint of it being a question of whether it happening or what is causing it anymore...that particular mainstream debate has been over for at least five years (since at least the year 2000)...and it has been debated since 1896 with Svante Arrehenius's equations showing that we humans could warm up the Earth's surface temperature by burning oil, coal and gas. Mainstream science moves forward too.

So why do you hear that scientists are still debating whether it is happening or not? They are not. Only people whose work does not stand up in the scientific journals over time question this. This is normal and expected for science. There is always a tailing edge of doubters who cannot prove their evidence and it all goes away when they finally die...there is even a scientific joke about this. Yes, I personally know several doubters...but their work does not hold up to the scientific process which is there for the rest of human history.

Now on to a more personal level. Many of the world's top publishing, climate scientist researchers I have privately talked to from NCAR, NOAA, the IPCC, the EPA, and from Canada have privately told me they are extremely worried about the future  of our civilization as we know it and for its related US national security threats unless we take immediate, sharp and overwhelming action against climate change...much more so than we are currently doing....the equivalent scale of changing our society from a prewar WW2 society into a WW2 one or the equivalent of eliminating slavery in this country. However, remember, that this country did indeed accomplish those unimaginable feats and came out the better for it.

I have never in my life ever heard mainstream science so sure about a problem before. Now, we have to backstep and define mainstream science in my opinion.

There are a lot of misconceptions, unfortunately, about mainstream science in my experience (I had to battle it almost daily at NCAR). Mainstream science uses the "scientific method". If the "scientific method" is not used, then it is not  science...it is pseudo science, period.

The "scientific method" means doing your research and then submitting it to world-wide scientific journals or scientific conferences. It is then permanently written down for the permanent human record. It is then openly tested for the rest of humankind's history in an open way (We still quote atmospsheric studies from 1824 on what keeps the Earth warm (Fourier). This is the way it has been done since the 1600s and 1700s...this is the "scientific method"...anything else is not science, it is opinion... especially when a PhD publicly attacks data from a scientific journal on a blog or writes a book without submitting it to the "scientific method scrutiny" or talks from a TV talk show.

To another subject: The scientific process is not an exclusive process, in spite of the misconceptions: Everyone can and has participated in this mainstream climate science method of mainstream journals...even oil engineers and economists have (McIntyre and McKitrick for example). However, it does not mean that their data holds up under open world-wide scrutiny if it has fatal holes in it.

All right, back to how mainstream science is so sure of human-made climate change (Mainstream does not include all the talking heads and PhDs who dishonestly don't submit their data for world-wide scrutiny or use the "scientific method"...but easily could have and have in the past). Mainstream science journals state that there is a  90% plus chance that human made climate change is going on (journals and IPCC). In science that means it is absolutely certain..and that it is going to continue. Mainstream science has been studying human-made climate change since at least the mid-1800s. In 1896, it made mathematical predictions (projections) that are now coming true...about how the Arctic will warm up faster than the rest of the Earth's surface, etc. due to human-caused climate change (Svante Arrhenius)...yes, that was in 1896. Public misperceptions also state that "scientists" are continually crying chicken little and nothing ever subsequently happens such as Y2K or the bird flu...that is not at all true in my experience (science usually gives percentage probabilities and Y2K was about 6 percent as was the bird flu...human-made climate change is about 90+ percent confidence level of happening. They are not even remotely in the same category).

Mainstream science is ultimately done in the mainstream journals such as the ancient Science and Nature. We still study and quote studies from the 1800s on climate change. If you want to know what mainstream science is saying...those are the "bibles" where you need to look. The "bibles" stated only about a 6% chance of a Y2k disaster or of epidemic  bird flu in the next few years...that is pretty average for a scientific warning. However, that is not what you publicly heard. Our society does not understand how science works...and science and mainstream scientists admittedly are and have been simply terrible about explaining themselves in in my opinion and experience.

So the mainstream climate change science, that has held up since literally 1824 (Jean-Baptiste Fourier), shows overwhelmingly that human-made climate change is strongly, quickly happening, will continue to happen on average over a long-term basis until we humans stop burning oil, coal and gas (remember there is a long lag time that it will continue even after we stop due to the the large heat capacity of the oceans and the long life time of carbon-dioxide). In my opinion, we have to act now, act fast and act massively or it will be too late to do enough to save our civilization as we know it....unfortunately, the long time lag involved will inevitably get us unless we act now.

Anyway, that is my own personal opinion for whatever it's worth.

Richard Ordway














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Richard Ordway